Book Audience

The Price of Tomorrow is about economics and finance. To get the most out of the book you should have a basic understanding of economics and business. I found this book to be an easy read that was not overly technical.

Main Idea

Technology causes price deflation. As automation and artificial intelligence continues to improve, products can be produced more efficiently. Less human labor is required leading to fewer jobs. We need to use the power of deflation to society’s benefit.

What I took away from this book

Deflation does not have to be a negative idea. The U.S. economy is no longer a capitalist system.

How I am using what I have learned

I am looking at ways to diversify my income. This book also is making me think about my small business differently. I am looking for ways technology can be leveraged to evolve the business

My Key Takeaways

• “I am a firm believer that talent is distributed evenly around the world.” -Thuram Pham

• Inflation benefits the holders of assets and deflation benefits the holders of currencies

• If you want to stay in business you must implement technology

• Growth in GDP has been from spending due to easy credit and debt. Central banks target 2% inflation per year. Deflation cannot be outrun with debt.

• 4 levers to control debt: 1. Austerity 2. Debt defaults/restructuring 3. Printing money 4. Wealth tranfers. Printing money is easiest lever and what policy makers use.

• First currency wars, then trade wars, then real wars.

• World economies are interconnected so no one country’s GDP can be considered in isolation.

• Global unwinding of credit in 1930s created Great Depression.

• Tariffs and trade wars have unintended consequences.

• Network effects gain power as they gain users. More users of a network benefits both users and company that owns network.

• Google give illusion of choice. Most people never leave first page of results. The first few results can be manipulated to achieve a desired result.

• “Minsky moment” -point where a debt-fueled asset bubble collapses, assets become difficult to sell at any price and market collapse ensues.

• Debt does not undermine capitalism. Stabilizing the economy by socializing losses does. See 2008 and 2020.

• Hero’s Journey- 1. The Departure 2. The Initiation 3. The Return -see page 76 for breakdown- Most stories fit this narrative.

• “Strong opinions, weakly held” for leadership (see page 81). Allows for quick decision making with the ability to improve decision making through reflection.

• Moore’s law and sigmoid function are important when considering how new technologies growth exponentially. (page 86-87)

• “All of our knowledge grows only through the correcting of our mistakes.” Karl Popper “Error correction is the basis of all intelligence.” Jeff Booth Small refinements in science lead to biggest revolutions.

• The more you practice, the better we become. (page 138)

• Robber’s Cave experiment (page 161-165) Biases that can be used to manipulate us: halo effect, in-group bias, out-group homogeneity bias. Our experiences and biases can be used to influence decision making.

• Octalysis is 8 motivational forces that drive our actions. These forces are: 1. Epic Meaning and Calling 2. Development and Accomplishment 3. Creativity and Feedback 4. Ownership and Possession 5. Social Pressure and Relatedness 6. Scarcity and Impatience 7. Unpredictability and Curiosity 8. Loss and Avoidance. This framework can be used to reverse engineer user behavior (page 168-169).

• Dangerous reinforcing loop of hate and division can be created using Maslow’s hierarchy, technology that targets individuals and reinforces belief patterns, and the natural tendency of humans to view things as “us versus them.” Especially if world is becoming more unequal (page 171-172).

• Propaganda and Milgram study (page 173-176)

• Prisoner’s Dilemma (178-180)

• Humans have evolutionary bias for cooperation. Humans acting together in mutual interest best way to solve greatest challenges.

• Fiat currency and bailouts have changed system from capitalism to crony capitalism where wins go to rich/elite and losses are socialized.

• Debt is so high that slowing grow could set off chain reaction where debt becomes unserviceable. Could population demographics be enough to start chain reaction?